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CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
PÁG. 94 - 107
ISSN 0717 - 3997 / 0718 - 3607
This work is part of the Curriculum Integration Project
Magíster en Investigación en Estudios Urbanos
Estudiante de la Tecnología en Gestión Territorial del Cambio Climático
Instituto Superior Universitario Cotopaxi, Latacunga, Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0033-7282
jevillavicencioo@istx.edu.ec
Magíster en Dirección y Administración de Empresas
Docente de la Tecnología en Gestión Territorial del Cambio Climático
Instituto Superior Universitario Cotopaxi, Latacunga, Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3507-4766
drlopezg@istx.edu.ec
Magíster en Creación de Guiones Audiovisuales
Docente de la Tecnología en Gestión Territorial del Cambio Climático
Instituto Superior Universitario Cotopaxi, Latacunga, Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1814-1691
apvelasquezc@istx.edu.ec
https://doi.org/10.22320/07183607.2024.27.49.07
1
2
3
4
Recibido: 01-12-2023
Aceptado: 20-05-2024
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN
EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
URBAN GROWTH AND
VULNERABILITY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE OF
CALDERÓN IN THE
METROPOLITAN DISTRICT
OF QUITO, ECUARDOR
1
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIOORDÓÑEZ 2
DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZGUZMÁN 3
ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZCAJAS 4
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
PÁG. 94 - 107
ISSN 0717 - 3997 / 0718 - 3607
95
The parish of Calderón, located in the Metropolitan District of Quito, has a spatial dynamic characteristic of the expansion
processes, with notable population growth, loss of agricultural land, and settlements in vulnerable areas. This research aimed
to identify the vulnerability to climate change by analyzing urban growth in this parish to dene measures for its climate change
adaptation. A three-stage mixed approach methodology was used: the historical and spatial analysis of urban growth, the
relationship between urban growth and vulnerability to climate change, and climate change adaptation measures in the parish of
Calderón. The thirteen indicators analyzed show a medium-low risk level in their exposure and sensitivity components. However,
the opposite is true for the adaptive capacity component, where vulnerability is high. The relationship between the parish’s
urban growth and vulnerability to climate change is not direct. On the one hand, the expansion processes affect the territory and
the population, causing environmental and social conicts. On the other hand, factors immersed in urban expansion’s spatial
dynamics are revealed.
Keywords:Climate change, urban growth, exposure, sensitivity, vulnerability.
La parroquia Calderón, ubicada en el Distrito Metropolitano de la ciudad de Quito, presenta una dinámica espacial característica
de los procesos de expansión con un crecimiento poblacional notable, pérdida de suelo agrícola y asentamientos en áreas
vulnerables. Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo identicar la vulnerabilidad al cambio climático mediante análisis del
crecimiento urbano de la parroquia Calderón para denir medidas de adaptación al mismo. Se utilizó la metodología de enfoque
mixto a través de tres etapas: análisis histórico y espacial del crecimiento urbano, relación entre el crecimiento urbano y
vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y medidas de adaptación al cambio climático en la parroquia Calderón. Los trece indicadores
analizados demuestran en sus componentes de exposición y sensibilidad un nivel medio bajo de riesgo, sin embargo, sucede lo
contrario en el componente de capacidad adaptativa donde la vulnerabilidad es alta. La relación entre el crecimiento urbano de
la parroquia y la vulnerabilidad al cambio climático no es directa. Por una parte, los procesos de expansión afectan al territorio y
a la población, originando conictos ambientales y sociales y, por otra, se evidencian factores que están inmersos en la propia
dinámica espacial de la expansión urbana.
Palabras clave: cambio climático, crecimiento urbano, exposición, sensibilidad, vulnerabilidad
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CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
PÁG. 94 - 107
ISSN 0717 - 3997 / 0718 - 3607
I. INTRODUCTION
In Latin America, urban growth occurs in an accelerated
and disorderly way, reflecting “deep causes of an
economic and social origin, along with a lack of
adequate urban planning” (Herrera & Pecht, 1976, p.
18). Consequently, problems such as regional and
urban network imbalance, marginality, unemployment,
absence of essential services, and increased urbanization
in the peripheries are revealed (Vilela & Moschella,
2017). However, climate change has become one of the
current narratives that influence the political, economic,
territorial, and cultural spheres, and this, accompanied
by accelerated urbanization processes, is a significant
challenge. Firstly, urbanization in developing countries
is related to being less prepared for environmental
challenges. Secondly, large cities are vulnerable to climate
change risks such as losing natural resources or even
natural disasters. Thirdly, cities produce the highest level
of greenhouse gases and energy consumption (Duque
& Montoya, 2021). Similarly, urban expansion causes
variations in air temperature that can affect the residents’
well-being (Ferrelli et al., 2016).
According to the UN (2011), understanding urban area
growth is essential to mitigating climate change. These
areas have obvious risks from weather patterns that
have become the daily realities of the most vulnerable
population. The analysis of climate and environmental
change in the context of Latin America and the Caribbean
is particularly relevant, given that it is a primarily
urban region. Cities are home to more than 80% of the
population and most economic activities, which generates
a high demand for land, public services, drinking water,
and energy. This, in turn, seriously impacts air quality and
greenhouse gas emissions (Duque & Montoya, 2021).
Therefore, urban growth has replaced forests, wetlands,
and agricultural fields, as can be seen in the study by
Mendes et al. (2020), who note that “the homogeneity
of hot and humid areas eliminates the thermal contrasts
needed to generate local breezes and winds” (p. 192),
which explains the high levels of pollution in medium-
sized and large cities.
In this context, the studies reviewed on urban expansion
in Calderón confirm the parish’s situation in terms of
territorial and environmental conflicts. For example,
Altamirano’s (2016) research shows that urban expansion
is related to the environment. He points out that
demographic growth has been generated by diverse
factors such as the location of residential, industrial, and
equipment areas. This presents an environmental impact
due to high levels of pollution as a result of the increase in
population, industries, and automobile fleet, among other
aspects. Another study by Vásquez (2007) mentions that
population growth and the need for territory to urbanize
the land with an agricultural vocation have disappeared.
Therefore, urban development affects protection and
conservation areas. It should be noted that no research
has been carried out regarding the relationship of urban
growth with climate change in the studied territory
beyond the environmental issue, reorganization, and
proposal of urban models for the parish. Therefore,
analyzing this case is relevant to understanding how
unplanned urban expansion and territorial conflicts
exacerbate the parish’s vulnerability to the adverse effects
of climate change, such as temperature increases, extreme
weather events, and the alteration of rainfall patterns.
These effects threaten the natural environment and the
quality of life of its inhabitants.
In this way, it is proposed to identify the vulnerability of
Calderón parish, considering that accelerated growth has
affected it socially, economically, and environmentally. In
this sense, the general objective of this work is to identify
the vulnerability to climate change by analyzing the urban
growth of Calderón to define climate change adaptation
measures. Three specific objectives were raised: analyzing
urban growth historically and spatially, determining the
relationship between urban growth and vulnerability,
and establishing climate change adaptation measures.
The research was based on a mixed approach study,
combining quantitative, qualitative, and spatial methods
over three stages: 1) historical and spatial analysis of
urban growth, 2) evaluation of the relationship between
urban growth and vulnerability to climate change, and
3) proposals for adaptation measures. For this, thirteen
indicators were used to measure exposure, sensitivity,
and adaptive capacity. This paper proposes guidelines on
climate change based on the governance and absence of
adaptation measures in the Territorial Organization and
Development Plans (PDOT, in Spanish) and the recent
Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2023).
II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The research is carried out in three categories: urban
growth, climate change, and vulnerability. Urban growth is
understood from three processes: expansion, consolidation,
and densication. The term expansion “refers to the change
of land use, i.e., when spaces used for rural activities are used
in city-related activities” (Ramírez & Pértile, 2013, p. 196). On
the other hand, consolidation is related to the set of services,
infrastructure, and densication. It includes the increase in
population and housing per unit area. Small cities have a
concentric urban expansion trend. However, there is gradual
demographic growth with a change in the development
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
PÁG. 94 - 107
ISSN 0717 - 3997 / 0718 - 3607
97
model, which implies urbanization processes. Therefore, city
expansion begins to be evident in the peripheries and
rural areas. (Bazant, 2008).
Thus, urbanization processes alter the climate at local
and regional levels, and urban areas tend to have higher
temperatures and more precipitation than rural ones.
Urbanization influences the climate because it hinders
the flow of winds, causing a hotter and less ventilated
environment. Automobiles, industries, and human
activity generate heat emissions, and pavements retain
heat, contributing to an increase in urban temperature
(Vásquez, 2007). Therefore, urbanization processes are
a fundamental part and consequence of urban growth,
directly related to climate change and its challenges.
Developing countries are the most exposed to climate
threats and other environmental challenges, where net
CO emissions come from using and changing land use
(IPCC, 2020). The IPCC (2019) defines climate change as
the “variation of the climate’s state identifiable in the
variations of the average value (...), which persists for
prolonged periods, usually decades or longer, and that
climate change may be due to internal natural processes
or external ones” (p. 75).
It is also essential to introduce the concept of vulnerability
and the situations and effects of climate change to
which informal settlements are exposed. Vulnerability
is the “propensity or predisposition to be negatively
affected. Vulnerability comprises a variety of concepts,
including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and
lack of responsiveness and adaptation” (IPCC, 2019, p.
92). Meanwhile, exposure is “the presence of people,
livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental
functions, services and resources, infrastructure,
or economic, social or cultural assets in places and
environments that could be negatively affected” (IPPC,
2019, p. 11). Sensitivity is the “degree to which a system
is affected, positively or negatively, by climate variability
or change. The effects can be direct (...) or indirect” (IPCC,
2007, p. 113), and the adaptive capacity is the “ability of
systems, institutions, human beings, and other organisms
to adapt to potential damage, to take advantage of
opportunities or cope with the consequences” (IPCC, 2019,
p. 76).
III. CASE STUDY
The parish of Calderón is located 15 km northeast of
the Quito Metropolitan District (QMD). It sits on the
Guangüiltagua plateau and has an area of 79.17 Km
2
. It is one
of 33 rural parishes (Figure 1). It is bordered to the north by
the parish of San Antonio, to the South by Llano Chico, to the
East by Guayllabamba, and to the West by Pomasqui (GAD
Calderón, 2023). Calderón has been part of the expansion
process that the QMD has experienced (Farinango, 2017)
through four mechanisms, as pointed out by Loachamín
(2017): “socio-economic and residential segregation,
migration, economic crisis, and land speculation” (p. 5).
Historical-spatial analysis of the urban growth of the
Calderón parish
Calderón has seen an urban growth model starting from land
subdivision and the start of agricultural activities in the 1960s
and 1970s. The population settled in the consolidated area,
and households with family incomes below the minimum
wage did so in the periphery, forming new nuclei in the
parish. The division of haciendas and land donation was
the starting point for “building amenities and population
Figure 1. Location of the parish of Calderón. Source: Preparation by the authors based on information from the Military Geographical Institute.
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CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
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Table 1. Evolution of the population in the parish of Calderón. Source: Prepared by the authors based on historical data from the National Institute
of Statistics and Censuses (INEC).
Figure 2. Variation of the urban sprawl in Calderón parish (2000-2021). Source: Preparation by the authors based on GIS (2016) les of UN
Habitat, NYU, and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (2016).
increase, which drove the growth and development of the
parish” (Ron, 2017, p. 79). In addition, real estate companies
were interested in large plots for building closed housing
complexes or for industrial use.
As a result of population growth, the peri-urbanization
processes have shaped Calderón spatially with greater
emphasis after the 1990s (Álvarez, 2021; Farinango, 2017). This
was because “the excessive rise in population in a very short
period drastically impacted how the space was used” (Álvarez,
2021, p. 105). If the growth of Calderón is considered in terms
of migratory processes and increased commercial activity
due to its spatial location (Farinango, 2017), it is necessary to
point out that population growth was evidenced from the
first national census in 1950. The growth up to 1982 was in
line with that of a rural parish; however, between 1950 and
1974, it doubled (Farinango, 2017; Ron, 2017), and between
1974 and 1990, it tripled (Table 1). The population growth
rate from 1982 to 1990 was 7.76%, 7.72% from 1990 to
2001, and 6.50% from 2001 to 2010 (Loachamín, 2017; GAD
Calderón, 2023). Calderón is also considered the parish with
the highest population density since, according to the 2010
census, it reaches a density of 1.9245 hab/Km
2
, the highest
among other rural parishes of the QMD (GAD Calderón, 2023;
Farinango, 2017).
The urban sprawl of Quito spread to the periphery,
and one of the most affected areas was the northeast
after 2000 (Figure 2). The consolidated land, as stated
by Farinango (2017), increased from 3.79% in 1996 to
35% in 2010, denoting that growth “has occupied all the
flat spaces for development and has started to occupy
irregular topographic spaces” (p. 22). Therefore, with urban
growth and environmental and social conditions, the
land use in the parish has changed. Between 2005 and
2015, there was evidence of a decrease in residential and
agricultural use and ecological protection and an increase
in industrial and residential surface use (Loachamín, 2017).
The following aspects were considered to analyze
the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability variables:
Calderón is located in the Esmeraldas River basin and the
Guayllabamba River sub-basin, consisting of six micro-
basins and six gorges, the most extensive being the
Tumahuco gorge with 24.69 km
2
(Mora, 2017; Loachamín,
2017; GAD Calderón, 2023). It is located in the plains of
a valley and has slopes of less than 25% in the urban
area. Conversely, where the slope is more significant, this
area has been destined for residential and protective
agricultural use (Loachamín, 2017). The Calderón parish
has a warm mesothermal dry climate (Loachamín, 2017),
Year 1950 1962 1974 1982 1990 2001 2010 2020
Inhab. 6.931 8.854 13.358 18.059 36.297 84.848 152.242 243.587
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
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Table 2. Variables analysis model. Source: Preparation by the authors.
with an average annual rainfall of 519.0 mm between
February and April with intense rains (Mora, 2017). The
average temperature varies from 14 to 18°C; however,
temperatures of 13 to 15°C predominate in the consolidated
area (GAD Calderón, 2023).
IV. METHODOLOGY
The following research was based on a study with an
experimental design and mixed approach (quantitative,
qualitative, and spatial). A deductive method was used to obtain
guidelines and propose adaptation measures. An in-depth
applied and exploratory research was carried out since the
relationship between urban growth and vulnerability to climate
change in Calderón parish was analyzed through two stages.
Stage 1: Relationship between urban growth and
vulnerability to climate change
A documentary review of secondary information on climate
change and vulnerability in previous studies, plans, and reports,
among other sources, was proposed as a research technique for
which an information matrix was used. The spatial analysis was
performed with GIS software to make thematic vulnerability
maps. The operationalization of this component was worked out
using an analysis model (Table 2) that collected three variables
and thirteen indicators.
The thirteen indicators were chosen based on the proposals
of three research projects: the vulnerability index to climate
change and adaptation plan for the city of Loja (FIC and
Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, 2021), The book
of vulnerability. Concept and guidelines for standardized
vulnerability assessment (GIZ, 2017) and Vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change in Guayaquil (CAF, 2018). A
comparative matrix was made for their analysis, and each
variable was represented; in addition, the availability of
information regarding the Geoportals of the Municipality
of the QMD and the Military Geographical Institute was
considered. Each of the indicators had a scale of 1 to 5,
and three had to be modied to adapt to this scale: the
conict for land use in the expansion zone, because they
were classied as adequate use, over light, over moderate,
over severe, underutilized, and the non-expansion area
does not apply. The plant cover indicator was classied into
agricultural, mixed agricultural, anthropic, conservation and
production, conservation and protection, and extraction of
non-renewable natural resources, with livestock, protection
or production, and unproductive lands not applicable.
These were grouped to represent the scale, assigning level
5 to conservation coverage. As for the indicator of access
to IESS Social Security, the data were grouped into ve
levels according to access. For the result of the vulnerability
scale, the ratio of total hectares and hectares with a high
or low level was considered depending on the indicator.
Finally, for the indicators of actions and projects on climate
change and local plans, a search was made for actions and
Variable Indicator Source
Exposure
Flood risk in urban habitat
QMD Municipality Geoportal
Risk of heat waves in urban habitat
Risk due to landslides in urban habitat
Wildres hazard
Sensitivity
Population density
Military Geographical Institute
Geoportal
Access to basic services
Socioeconomic level
Conict over land use in the Expansion area
Plant cover
Ability to adapt
Level of education Military Geographical Institute
Geoportal
Access to IESS Social Security Population and Housing Census
2010
Actions and projects on climate change
QMD Council
Local plans for climate change and disaster risk management
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CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
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Table 3. Vulnerability results, scale from 0 to 100%. Source: Preparation by the authors.
Figure 3. a) Flood risk. (b) landslides in urban habitats. Source: Preparation by the authors based on data in the shape format of 2020 of the QMD
Municipality Geoportal (2023).
Indicator Total Inhab. High/low value Scale
Exposure
Flood risk in urban habitat 3136.53 11.12 0.35
Risk of heat waves in urban habitat 3132.91 111.74 3.57
Risk due to landslides in urban habitat 3127.71 782.98 25.03
Wildres hazard 7919.63 1453.79 18.36
Sensitivity
Population density 6225.33 52.95 0.85
Access to services 6225.33 177.88 2.86
Socioeconomic level 6225.33 1749.09 28.05
Conict over land use in expansion areas 6241.02 275.24 4.41
Plant cover for conservation and protection 6241.02 1137.69 18.23
Ability to adapt
Level of education 6225.39 5285.33 84.90
Population enrolled in Social Security 7919.69 4693.16 59.26
Departments/heads that include climate change (municipality) 75.00
Actions/projects on climate change 80.00
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
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projects implemented by the municipality and the Calderón
Zonal Administration, as well as the availability of local plans
concerning climate change and disaster risk management.
Therefore, instruments such as the 2022 Accountability and
the 2022 Annual Operating Plan were analyzed. Thus, 25
departments/heads at the municipal level who work on climate
change were determined, and 20 actions were developed on
this topic; a dierence ratio was made with 100% for managing
the vulnerability scale in these two indicators.
Stage 2: Adaptation measures to climate change in
Calderón Parish
In the second stage of the research, the bibliographic review
technique of regulatory documents in force in the country and
the QMD, as well as international parameters on adaptation
measures, was used. The municipality has 25 areas that work
on environmental issues, including climate change, within the
projects and 20 actions that include the QMD PDOT. In this case,
this was subtracted from 100% to determine the vulnerability
regarding the absence.
V. RESULTS
Vulnerability analysis
According to the Ministry of the Environment, Water and
Ecological Transition, Calderón has a vulnerability index to
climate change of 90.48%, a high value on the proposed
measurement scale (Ministry of the Environment, Water
and Ecological Transition, 2023). According to the research
results, the parish’s vulnerability is low to medium (0-60%)
concerning the first nine indicators (Table 3). However,
the adaptive capacity of the parish has high levels of
vulnerability (60-100%). In this context, implementing
planning instruments regarding climate change can
improve adaptation capacity and allow it to face its
negative impacts.
Exposure
Figure 3a shows the flood risk in 5 levels. It is observed
that the South-west has a high level of risk, covering an
area of 11.12 ha, and an average level, on the other hand,
is evident in the North and South with an area of 1121.81
ha exposed to floods, representing 35.70% of the urban
surface area. On the other hand, the urban area is located
on a semi-flat relief with low slopes, as indicated in Figure
3b, where the risk of landslides is high (111.75 ha). Only
in the eastern sector of the parish is the risk medium-
high, where the transition from the natural to the urban
area occurs and where the slopes are greater than 40%
(GAD Calderón, 2023). It can be seen that the low level
corresponds to 63.27% of the urban area.
Figure 4a shows a high level of risk in the North and
Northeast sectors in an area of 782.92 ha, close to natural
Figure 4. a) Risk of heat waves in urban habitat. b) Wildres. Source: Preparation by the authors based on data on the shape format of 2020 from
the QMD Municipal Geoportal (2023).
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CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
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and protection areas, representing 24.95% of the urban
area. Very high temperatures produce droughts, which
increases the events related to wildfires. The North
Eastern sector is next to ecological protection areas; the
conservation and protection ground cover predominates
with forest, shrub, herbaceous vegetation, grasslands, and
paramo. Figure 4b indicates the very high level of wildre
danger that is spread throughout the territory. The average
level, equivalent to 2506.3 ha, occupies a large continuous
area on the East side.
Sensitivity
The expansion sectors close to protection and conservation
areas had low densities, unlike those in the southwest of
the parish, where high densities are seen in an area of 52.96
ha and high averages of 56.19 ha, as evidenced in Figure
5a. On the other hand, Figure 5b shows that the parish has
a high level of access to essential services (drinking water,
sewerage, and garbage collection), that is, 2882.80 ha,
representing 46.31% of the surface, as opposed to 177.88
ha that have a low level in the Northern sector.
The socioeconomic level indicator (Figure 5c) considered
high to low socioeconomic level values, obtaining that the
high socioeconomic level covers only 58.83 ha, with low
and medium-low levels predominating with 1746.09 ha
and 2580.21 ha, respectively.
Regarding the conict indicator of land use in the
expansion zone (Figure 6a), 275.24 ha belong to the highest
level; there is a conict concerning underutilization “where
the demand or requirement of the activity exceeded
the supply provided by the land” (CIIFEN, 2012, p. 22). In
addition, the land cover was analyzed (Figure 6b), and the
presence of conservation and protection land in the parish
was highlighted. Therefore, 1137.69 ha are from the use of
conservation and protection. It should be considered that
this use is essential because anthropic activities reduce
the sensitivity of these areas and the population (CAF
Development Bank of Latin America, 2018).
Ability to adapt
Calderón reveals a low average level of education (Figure
7a), with an area of 5285.33 ha. In the access to social
security indicator, information from the Population and
Housing Census 2010 (INEC, 2010) was used to obtain ve
population ranges of access to social security from the
IESS, which, in this case, represents 473,086 inhabitants. The
low level corresponds to 4693.16 ha (Figure 7b). This zone
considers the expansion areas, use of ecological protection,
and those scattered in the consolidated area. The high level
represents only 115.38 ha of the entire territory.
Figure 5. a) Population density (inhab/ha). b) Access to essential
services. c) Socio-economic level. Source: Preparation by the
authors based on data in the shape format of 2019 from the Military
Geographical Institute Geoportal (2019).
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
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Figure 6. a) Conict over land use in expansion areas. b) Plant cover. Source: Preparation by the authors based on data in the shape format of 2019
from the Military Geographical Institute Geoportal (2019).
Figure 7. a) Education level. b) Access to IESS social security. Source: Preparation by the authors based on data in the shape format of 2019 of the
Military Geographical Institute Geoportal (2019) and the Population and Housing Census (INEC 2010).
104
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
PÁG. 94 - 107
ISSN 0717 - 3997 / 0718 - 3607
Also, in this component, the adaptive capacity was
assessed using two factors (Table 4): actions and projects
implemented by the municipality and the Calderón Zonal
Administration and the availability of local plans related to
climate change and disaster risk management.
Climate change adaptation measures
Factors such as vulnerability and exposure were considered
for climate threats. In this sense, it is vital that the
PDOT management model establishes mechanisms to
implement climate adaptation measures. This considers
the key players, current mechanisms, engagement times,
and whether a unit within each GADM is responsible for
monitoring and execution. In this context, implementing
climate change planning instruments can improve
adaptation capacity and face the negative impacts that
lead to climate change.
For its part, the Quito PACQ 2020 Climate Action Plan
(Secretary of Environment of the Metropolitan District
of Quito and C40, 2020), in its adaptation component,
prioritized some dimensions that facilitated the design
of actions with the identification of the most significant
territorial impact and benefits. This PACQ highlights some
actions: (1) the proposal of climate compatible planning
standards using guidelines for climate change adaptation
in urban expansion and agricultural areas, which includes
the zoning and standards for land conservation area; (2)
the land occupation conditions for climate neutrality,
which involved areas that contribute to the land bank to
reduce the risk, provided that there is available land to
cover the lack of green areas, public space and housing; (3)
early warning water adaptive management to reduce flood
risks, i.e., the implementation of extreme rainfall event
notifications; (4) a sustainable urban drainage infrastructure
proposal that controls surface runoff in urban areas, to
increase the resilience to climate change; (5) training
and capacity building regarding wildfires to reduce the
impact of fire by human causes; and finally, (6) to engage
in sustainable and climate compatible agriculture, through
sustainable agriculture land use management, which
contributes to food security and sovereignty (Secretariat of
Environment of the Metropolitan District of Quito and C40,
2020).
VI. DISCUSSION
The UN (2011) notes that the combustion of flammable
fossil elements, extensive industrial pollution, the
destruction of forests, and changes in land use have led to
an accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
decreasing the ability of oceans and vegetation to absorb
these gases, which has caused temperatures changes in
cities. Understanding urban growth becomes crucial for
mitigating climate change, especially in Latin America
and the Caribbean, where most of the population resides
in urban areas and economic activities are concentrated
in cities. This concentration generates a high demand for
resources and services, contributing to environmental
pollution. In addition, the transformation of the urban
landscape, with the replacement of natural areas by
Table 4. Actions and projects implemented, and plans related to climate change and risk management. Source: Preparation by authors based on
secondary information matrices and Municipality of Quito (2022).
Actions and projects Plans
Recovery of plant cover
5 ha of plant cover with collective reforestation
actions in ecological protection areas and ravines
Territorial Organization and
Development Plan GAD Calderón
2021 (update 2023)
Revision of 100% of the risk analysis reports
22 reports to locate anthropogenic activities that
cause risk
Metropolitan Organization and
Development Plan 2021-2033
Implementation of 22 actions to mitigate
minor risks
15 collective actions for disaster risk mitigation
6 training processes on risk issues in neighborhoods
Quito PACQ 2020 Climate Change
Action Plan
CRECIMIENTO URBANO Y VULNERABILIDAD AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE CALDERÓN EN EL DISTRITO METROPOLITANO DE QUITO, ECUADOR
JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
REVISTA URBANO Nº 49 / MAYO 2024 - OCTUBRE 2024
PÁG. 94 - 107
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105
infrastructures, alters local weather patterns, exacerbating
city pollution levels (Duque & Montoya, 2021).
In this way, the research findings on Calderón Parish
highlight the interconnection between urban growth,
climate change, and vulnerability. Historically, population
growth has driven urban expansion, especially towards
peripheral areas, significantly increasing housing density.
This uncontrolled growth exacerbated climate risks such as
landslides, floods, and heat waves, unevenly affecting the
territory and population and creating environmental and
social conflicts. This relationship aligns with the theoretical
framework, which describes how urban expansion alters
the local and regional climate, contributing to a hotter
and less ventilated environment due to heat retention on
urban surfaces. Vulnerability, defined as the predisposition
to be negatively affected by climate change, manifests
itself in peripheral urban areas where exposure to climate
risks is combined with an increasing sensitivity and a
limited adaptive capacity. Taken together, these findings
underscore the importance of sustainably addressing
urban growth and implementing climate change
adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of urban
communities to emerging environmental challenges.
Consequently, “the urban growth model effectively
represents a factor of vulnerability to the effects of
climate change” (Cerda, 2020, p. 48). Climatic, social, and
environmental factors have become a fundamental focus
for the population’s vulnerability; i.e., an urban growth
model can reduce ecosystem resources, increasing
vulnerability (Cerda, 2020). Thus, “the urbanization process,
understood as a concentration of inhabitants, expansion of
urban limits or creation of new cities, has a high impact on
the environment and social dynamics” (Rosales, 2013, p. 1).
VII. CONCLUSIONS
This research proposes to identify the vulnerability to
climate change by analyzing the urban growth of the
Calderón parish to define climate change adaptation
measures. To do this, thirteen indicators were used to
determine the vulnerability conditions in the parish and
develop the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity
variables in the territory.
Population growth in the Calderón parish has been one
of the main factors in the expansion process. It has led
to the implementation of new residential, industrial, and
commercial areas. However, this area has unfavorable
geomorphological and geological conditions and is prone
to natural hazards such as floods, landslides, and ash falls,
with a high risk in the East of the parish. In the adaptive
capacity variable, a high vulnerability is observed due to
the few actions and projects aimed directly at climate
change adaptation by the Municipality of the QMD and
the Calderón Parish GAD. The lack of legal instruments
prevents climate-related actions from being coordinated,
as well as the lack of initiatives to engage with the private
sector and develop actions that start from research and
innovation towards the advancement of mechanisms that
ensure efficient measures in the face of climate change
vulnerability.
In conclusion, the research reveals the intimate
relationship between uncontrolled growth and its
vulnerability to climate change. The population increase
has driven the expansion of residential, industrial, and
commercial areas, which has exposed the parish to
natural hazards such as floods and landslides, especially
in the Eastern area. The municipal and parish authorities’
lack of specific actions and projects to adapt to climate
change has left the community vulnerable. The research
highlights the urgency of integrating adaptation
measures into Territorial Organization and Development
Plans (PDOT) with the participation of key actors and the
need to have risk management units in each municipality.
The action proposals presented are based on existing
instruments, such as the Quito 2020 Climate Action
Plan, which offers a framework for effectively addressing
climate vulnerability in Calderón Parish.
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JOHANNA ELIZABETH VILLAVICENCIO-ORDÓÑEZ, DIANA RAQUEL LÓPEZ-GUZMÁN, ÁNGEL PATRICIO VELÁSQUEZ-CAJAS
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