Effects of the penetration of wind power in the brazilian electricity market
Palabras clave:
Transmission lines, renewable energy, wind power, Brazil, simulationResumen
Climate variability has been the main driver for renewables in the Brazilian electricity market. This article analyzes the vulnerabilities of the dependence on hydropower in renewable energy production due to climate variation, as well as wind power penetration in Brazil, given a set of wind industry policies. Despite Brazilian renewable energy increase, the study shows the impact in energy supply in north region, due to the lack of transmission infrastructure. In Brazil, the potential trade-offs between renewables growth, and transmission infrastructure inconsistencies in terms of policy implementation are not yet well analyzed. Simulation results show the potential conflicts between energy policies aimed at increasing the wind power supply and boundaries in transmission infrastructure.
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ABRELL, B.J. and RAUSCH, S. Cross-country electricity trade, renewable energy and European transmission infrastructure policy. Journal of Environmental Economics
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13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032116000290
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ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032116300065
FOLEY, T., THORNTON, K., HINRICHS-RAHLWES, R., SAWYER, S., SANDER, M., TAYLOR, R., TESKE, S., LEHMANN, H., ALERS, M. and HALES, D. Renewables 2015 global status report. S.l.: s.n. Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2015. ISBN 978-3-9815934-6-4.
HASANI, M. and HOSSEINI, S.H. Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms. Energy [online]. 2011, 36(1), 277-293 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.041. ISSN 03605442. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544210006043
HASELIP, J., DYNER, I. and CHERNI, J. Electricity market reform in Argentina: assessing the impact for the poor in Buenos Aires. Utilities Policy [online]. 2005, 13(1), 1-14 [cit. 2016-07-11]. DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2004.03.001. ISSN 09571787. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S095717870400044X
HERRERA, M.M. and ORJUELA CASTRO, J.A. Perspectiva de trazabilidad en la cadena de suministros de frutas : un enfoque desde la dinámica de sistemas. Ingeniería, 2014, 19(2), pp. 63–84.
IOAKIMIDIS, C., KOUKOUZAS, N., CHATZIMICHALI, A., CASIMIRO, S. and MACARULLA, A. Energy Policy Scenarios of CCS Implementation in the Greek Electricity Sector. Energy Procedia [online]. 2012, 23, 354-359 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2012.06.025. ISSN
18766102. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S187661021201065X
LARSEN, E.R., DYNER, I., BEDOYA, L. and FRANCO, C.J. Lessons from deregulation in Colombia: successes, failures and the way ahead. Energy Policy [online]. 2004, 32(15), 1767-1780 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00167-8. ISSN 03014215. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421503001678
MINISTERIO DE MINAS E ENERGIA. Plano Nacional de Energia 2030. S.l.: s.n. Brasilia: Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica, 2007. ISBN 978-85-60025-02-2
OCHOA, C. and VAN ACKERE, A. Does size matter? Simulating electricity market coupling between Colombia and Ecuador. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2015, 50, 1108-1124 [cit. 2016-07-10]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.05.054. ISSN 13640321.
Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032115005225
PAO, H.T. and FU, H.C. Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2013, 25, 381-392 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.05.004. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032113002906
PEREIRA, A.O., CUNHA DA COSTA, R., COSTA, C.D.V., MARRECO, J.D.M. and LA ROVERE, E.L. Perspectives for the expansion of new renewable energy sources in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2013, 23, 49-59 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.02.020. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032113001226
PEREIRA, A.O., PEREIRA, A.S., LA ROVERE, E.L., BARATA, M.M.D.L., VILLAR, S.D.C. and PIRES, S.H. Strategies to promote renewable energy in Brazil. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2011, 15(1), 681-688 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2010.09.027. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/
S136403211000314X
PEREIRA, M.G., CAMACHO, C.F., FREITAS, M.A.V. and SILVA, N.F. Da. The renewable energy market in Brazil: Current status and potential. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2012, 16(6), 3786-3802 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.03.024. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032112002079
PONZO, R., DYNER, I., ARANGO, S. and LARSEN, E.R. Regulation and development of the Argentinean gas market. Energy Policy [online]. 2011, 39(3), 1070-1079 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.009. ISSN 03014215. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421510008335
QUDRAT-ULLAH, H. Green power in Ontario: A dynamic model-based analysis. Energy [online]. 2014, 77, 859-870 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.072. ISSN 03605442. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S036054421401130X
QUDRAT-ULLAH, H. Modelling and Simulation in Service of Energy Policy. Energy Procedia [online]. 2015, 75, 2819-2825 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.558.
ISSN 18766102. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1876610215013260
STERMAN, J.D. Business dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. S.l.: Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2000. ISBN 007238915X.
STRACHAN, N. Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines. Energy Economics [online]. 2011, 33(2), 153-160 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.009. ISSN 01409883. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S014098831000191X
TIBA, C., CANDEIAS, A.L.B., FRAIDENRAICH, N., BARBOSA, E.M. de S., DE CARVALHO NETO, P.B. and DE MELO FILHO, J.B. A GIS-based decision support tool for renewable
energy management and planning in semi-arid rural environments of northeast of Brazil. Renewable Energy [online]. 2010, 35(12), 2921-2932 [cit. 2016-07-10]. DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.05.009. ISSN 09601481. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148110002272.
TROOST, C., WALTER, T. and BERGER, T. Climate, energy and environmental policies in agriculture: Simulating likely farmer responses in Southwest Germany. Land Use Policy [online]. 2015, 46, 50-64 [cit. 2016-07-11]. DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.028. ISSN 02648377.
Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264837715000320
KARPLUS, V., RAUSCH, S. and ZHANG, D. Energy caps: Alternative climate policy instruments for China? Energy Economics [online]. 2016, 56, 422-431 [cit. 2016-07-1]. DOI:
10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.019. ISSN 01409883. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988316300573
WWF-BRASIL – FUNDO MUNDIAL PARA A NATUREZA. Desafios e oportunidades para a energia solar fotovoltaica no Brasil : recomendações para políticas públicas [online]. 2015. [cit. 2016-06-10]. Available from: http://www.wwf.org.br/?46523/desafios-e-oportunidadespara-a-energia-eolica-no-brasil-recomendacoes-para-politicas-publicas.
ZULUAGA, M.M. and DYNER, I. Incentives for renewable energy in reformed Latin-American electricity markets: the Colombian case. Journal of Cleaner Production[online]. 2007, 15(2), 153-162 [cit. 2016-07-02]. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2005.12.014. ISSN 09596526. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959652606001181
and Management [online]. 2016, 79, 87-113 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.04.001. ISSN 00950696. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0095069616300122
ANEEL. Matriz de Energia Eléctrica. Capacidad de Operación [online]. 2016, [cit.2016-06-07]: Available from: <www2.aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/capacidadebrasil/OperacaoCapacidadeBrasil.cfm>.
ARANGO, S., DYNER, I. and LARSEN, E.R. Lessons from deregulation: Understanding electricity markets in South America. Utilities Policy [online]. 2006, 14(3), 196-207 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2006.02.001. ISSN 09571787. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957178706000130
ASLANI, A., HELO, P. and NAARANOJA, M. Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach. Applied Energy [online]. 2014, 113, 758-765 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.015. ISSN 03062619. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261913006508
BAHN, O., EDWARDS, N.R., KNUTTI, R. and STOCKER, T.F. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system. Energy Policy [online]. 2011, 39(1), 334-348 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.002. ISSN 03014215. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421510007342
BALE, C.S.E., VARGA, L. and FOXON, T.J. Energy and complexity: New ways forward. Applied Energy [online]. 2015, 138, 150-159 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.10.057. ISSN 03062619. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261914011076
BRANNSTROM, C., GORAYEB, A., DE SOUSA MENDES, J., LOUREIRO, C., MEIRELES, A.J. de A., SILVA, E.V. da, FREITAS, A.L.R. de and OLIVEIRA, R.F. de. Is Brazilian wind
power development sustainable? Insights from a review of conflicts in Ceará state. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2017, 67, 62-71 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.08.047. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032116304804
CABALU, H., KOSHY, P., CORONG, E., RODRIGUEZ, U.P.E. and ENDRIGA, B.A. Modelling the impact of energy policies on the Philippine economy: Carbon tax, energy efficiency, and changes in the energy mix. Economic Analysis and Policy [online]. 2015, 48, 222-237 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2015.11.014. ISSN 03135926. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0313592615301363
CORRÊA DA SILVA, R., DE MARCHI NETO, I. and SILVA SEIFERT, S. Electricity supply security and the future role of renewable energy sources in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2016, 59, 328-341 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.001. ISSN
13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032116000290
DE JONG, P., KIPERSTOK, A., SÁNCHEZ, A.S., DARGAVILLE, R. and TORRES, E.A. Integrating large scale wind power into the electricity grid in the Northeast of Brazil. Energy [online]. 2016, 100, 401-415 [cit. 2016-07-12]. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.026. ISSN 03605442. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544215016680
DE LUCENA, A.F.P., SZKLO, A.S., SCHAEFFER, R., DE SOUZA, R.R., BORBA, B.S.M.C., DA COSTA, I.V.L., JÚNIOR, A.O.P. and DA CUNHA, S.H.F. The vulnerability of renewable
energy to climate change in Brazil. Energy Policy [online]. 2009, 37(3), 879-889 [cit. 2016-07-11]. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.029. ISSN 03014215. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421508006058
DE MELO, C.A., JANNUZZI, G.D.M. and BAJAY, S.V. Nonconventional renewable energy governance in Brazil: Lessons to learn from the German experience. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2016, 61, 222-234 [cit. 2016-07-05]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.03.054.
ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032116300065
FOLEY, T., THORNTON, K., HINRICHS-RAHLWES, R., SAWYER, S., SANDER, M., TAYLOR, R., TESKE, S., LEHMANN, H., ALERS, M. and HALES, D. Renewables 2015 global status report. S.l.: s.n. Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2015. ISBN 978-3-9815934-6-4.
HASANI, M. and HOSSEINI, S.H. Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms. Energy [online]. 2011, 36(1), 277-293 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.041. ISSN 03605442. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544210006043
HASELIP, J., DYNER, I. and CHERNI, J. Electricity market reform in Argentina: assessing the impact for the poor in Buenos Aires. Utilities Policy [online]. 2005, 13(1), 1-14 [cit. 2016-07-11]. DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2004.03.001. ISSN 09571787. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S095717870400044X
HERRERA, M.M. and ORJUELA CASTRO, J.A. Perspectiva de trazabilidad en la cadena de suministros de frutas : un enfoque desde la dinámica de sistemas. Ingeniería, 2014, 19(2), pp. 63–84.
IOAKIMIDIS, C., KOUKOUZAS, N., CHATZIMICHALI, A., CASIMIRO, S. and MACARULLA, A. Energy Policy Scenarios of CCS Implementation in the Greek Electricity Sector. Energy Procedia [online]. 2012, 23, 354-359 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2012.06.025. ISSN
18766102. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S187661021201065X
LARSEN, E.R., DYNER, I., BEDOYA, L. and FRANCO, C.J. Lessons from deregulation in Colombia: successes, failures and the way ahead. Energy Policy [online]. 2004, 32(15), 1767-1780 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00167-8. ISSN 03014215. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421503001678
MINISTERIO DE MINAS E ENERGIA. Plano Nacional de Energia 2030. S.l.: s.n. Brasilia: Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica, 2007. ISBN 978-85-60025-02-2
OCHOA, C. and VAN ACKERE, A. Does size matter? Simulating electricity market coupling between Colombia and Ecuador. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2015, 50, 1108-1124 [cit. 2016-07-10]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.05.054. ISSN 13640321.
Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032115005225
PAO, H.T. and FU, H.C. Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2013, 25, 381-392 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.05.004. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032113002906
PEREIRA, A.O., CUNHA DA COSTA, R., COSTA, C.D.V., MARRECO, J.D.M. and LA ROVERE, E.L. Perspectives for the expansion of new renewable energy sources in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2013, 23, 49-59 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.02.020. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032113001226
PEREIRA, A.O., PEREIRA, A.S., LA ROVERE, E.L., BARATA, M.M.D.L., VILLAR, S.D.C. and PIRES, S.H. Strategies to promote renewable energy in Brazil. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2011, 15(1), 681-688 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2010.09.027. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/
S136403211000314X
PEREIRA, M.G., CAMACHO, C.F., FREITAS, M.A.V. and SILVA, N.F. Da. The renewable energy market in Brazil: Current status and potential. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [online]. 2012, 16(6), 3786-3802 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.03.024. ISSN 13640321. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032112002079
PONZO, R., DYNER, I., ARANGO, S. and LARSEN, E.R. Regulation and development of the Argentinean gas market. Energy Policy [online]. 2011, 39(3), 1070-1079 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.009. ISSN 03014215. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421510008335
QUDRAT-ULLAH, H. Green power in Ontario: A dynamic model-based analysis. Energy [online]. 2014, 77, 859-870 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.072. ISSN 03605442. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S036054421401130X
QUDRAT-ULLAH, H. Modelling and Simulation in Service of Energy Policy. Energy Procedia [online]. 2015, 75, 2819-2825 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.558.
ISSN 18766102. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1876610215013260
STERMAN, J.D. Business dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. S.l.: Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2000. ISBN 007238915X.
STRACHAN, N. Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines. Energy Economics [online]. 2011, 33(2), 153-160 [cit. 2016-07-13]. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.009. ISSN 01409883. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S014098831000191X
TIBA, C., CANDEIAS, A.L.B., FRAIDENRAICH, N., BARBOSA, E.M. de S., DE CARVALHO NETO, P.B. and DE MELO FILHO, J.B. A GIS-based decision support tool for renewable
energy management and planning in semi-arid rural environments of northeast of Brazil. Renewable Energy [online]. 2010, 35(12), 2921-2932 [cit. 2016-07-10]. DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.05.009. ISSN 09601481. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148110002272.
TROOST, C., WALTER, T. and BERGER, T. Climate, energy and environmental policies in agriculture: Simulating likely farmer responses in Southwest Germany. Land Use Policy [online]. 2015, 46, 50-64 [cit. 2016-07-11]. DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.028. ISSN 02648377.
Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264837715000320
KARPLUS, V., RAUSCH, S. and ZHANG, D. Energy caps: Alternative climate policy instruments for China? Energy Economics [online]. 2016, 56, 422-431 [cit. 2016-07-1]. DOI:
10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.019. ISSN 01409883. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988316300573
WWF-BRASIL – FUNDO MUNDIAL PARA A NATUREZA. Desafios e oportunidades para a energia solar fotovoltaica no Brasil : recomendações para políticas públicas [online]. 2015. [cit. 2016-06-10]. Available from: http://www.wwf.org.br/?46523/desafios-e-oportunidadespara-a-energia-eolica-no-brasil-recomendacoes-para-politicas-publicas.
ZULUAGA, M.M. and DYNER, I. Incentives for renewable energy in reformed Latin-American electricity markets: the Colombian case. Journal of Cleaner Production[online]. 2007, 15(2), 153-162 [cit. 2016-07-02]. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2005.12.014. ISSN 09596526. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959652606001181
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2016-12-31
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