Urban morphology and the thermal behavior of urban canyons: The development of a predictive model for maximum temperatures
Keywords:
urban morphology, thermal behavior, heat island, multivariate statistics, predictive modelAbstract
Cities modify the climatic parameters of the sites where they are located. One of the main changes is the increase in air temperature caused by urban heat islands (UHI). UHIs increase electricity demand and decrease the livability of indoor and outdoor spaces. This paper seeks to determine urban morphologies that help to reduce electric energy consumption and the UHI effect. To this end, 9 representative urban canyons (UC) in the metropolitan area of Mendoza, Argentina were selected, characterized and thermally monitored. With the indicators used to characterize the UCs, a predictive multivariate statistical model for maximum temperature was created (R2 = 0.85 and RSME = 2.41 %). This model was used to test 20 possible urban scenarios (16 forested and 4 non-forested UCs). As a result, it was observed that the maximum temperature in the forestedcases remains up to 12.7 ºC cooler than in the non-forested cases. Additionally, there is a difference of up to 9.8 ºC between the forested cases. This reveals the impact that the choice of urban combinations --forestation + morphology-- can have on thermal response when designing and planning city development schemes.
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